Y2K

Y2K - January 1, 2000

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Over the past several years, "Y2K" or the "Millennium bug" has been the subject of much discussion, predominantly in Christian circles. Briefly, Y2K is the computer hardware and software design flaw that only recognizes two digit dates eg 96 , 97, 98 and 99 At midnight, on January 1st 2000, older computers that have the old programming and CPU's (computer chip) will recognize the date 00 as 1900 and not 2000. So in effect, if your date of birth is 1970, according to the computer, you would not have been born. Another scenario is computers that control things like electricity generation, water and banks will also malfunction. This has caused a panic to arise in thousands of Christian folk, and many preachers have been warning their people of impending disaster. Dozens of books on the subject have been published. They have held seminars and have produced videos etc on the subject. Some Christians are so serious about the problem, they have stored dried foods and water purification chemicals etc in basements and attics, to supply their families for a year and more. There is a lot of fear and panic associated with this phenomenon. Recently, during my revival travels, I have had a number of discussions on the subject with pastors and other Christian folk. I frequently get requests via e-mail to address the subject, so this is my take.

My explanation of Y2K

Hype, a non-event, and a money making opportunity for quite a few ministries. Yet another scare tactic a dry and sick church is using to try to keep people's attention. It is sad that the "Good News" of the gospel, has become "bad news" for so many. I listened to a Christian radio station playing gospel music. The songs were all about the love of God, the blessing He brings to His people, and His awesome provision for the church. Between those wonderful, faith building songs, I had to listen to a "Christian Company" advertising their Y2K survival packages and how people need to order now, as there is a four week waiting period and it will only get worse before the end of the year. There were about 4 - 6 spots and hour. What a shame. They will make thousands this year and then next year will have to close down, because demand will drop off drastically.

To be quite honest with you, it is sick indeed. What happened to Ps 37:25 "I have been young, and now am old; yet have I not seen the righteous forsaken, nor his seed begging bread. "(KJV) What happened to Ps 23:1 "The LORD is my shepherd; I shall not want. "(KJV) What has become of Matt 6:25-26 "Therefore I say unto you, Take no thought for your life, what ye shall eat, or what ye shall drink; nor yet for your body, what ye shall put on. Is not the life more than meat, and the body than raiment? 26 Behold the fowls of the air: for they sow not, neither do they reap, nor gather into barns; yet your heavenly Father feedeth them. Are ye not much better than they? "(KJV)

The Business world is not in a panic

Jesus said in Luke 16:8" And the lord commended the unjust steward, because he had done wisely: for the children of this world are in their generation wiser than the children of light."(KJV) When you consider the fact that the paranoia is coming predominantly from the Chruch, and not the secular folk, it must make you wonder why!!!

Just imagine, corporate America sitting back and waiting for the stroke of midnight Jan 1, 2000 to loose billions of dollars, all because they could not fix a computer problem in time. Do you think the mighty McDonalds fast food chain, with a multi-billion $ turnover, are sitting around just waiting for the new millineum to suddenly go out of business. What about Coca Cola, Ford and General Motors, to mention only a few of the fortune 500 companies and the thousands of other multi-million dollar per year corporations. Why is there no panic coming from all of them. Because the majority have been feverishly working on fixing the problem to make sure they will still be in business on Jan. 1st. The stock market ran a Jan 1, 2000 trading day without a glitch. When asked about possible electricity supply problem, the head of the New York City supply company smiled and replied, there may be an outage in one or two grids, but the network is designed that, should one grid fail, then another will take over. The banking institutions have all been working for several years to fix the bug, and will be year 2000 compliant within this year.

I spoke to a number of programmers who are involved in Y2K fixes, and they all confirmed that the problems are solvable. There are some older satelites that contain the bug and will probably fail, but there are others that can take their place. In any event, most are being replaced with newer technology anyway. There may be a few glitches that could cause some companies to lose time and money, but they will have the problem fixed within days. The Red Cross recently released a statement regarding Y2K. They advised people to keep a weeks supply of food just in case their area is affected by some shortages.

What if I am wrong?

If I am wrong, then I will be the first to apologize. However, can you imagine what is going to happen on the first Sunday in January 2000 when a lot of red faced pastors stand before their congregations, and try to explain to the their people what to do with a years supply of dried food. I believe a lot of "feed the hungry " ministries will be started in the month of January. It is panic that is the greater threat. (as mentioned in the article above) A lot of Christian folk are in a panic about Y2K all because they have read so much and listened to so many of the doomsday spokespersons.

My Recommendations

Take the precautions that you would normally do in the case of an emergency. ie : bad snow storm or hurricane etc. Keep at least a week or two's supply of food and some cash on hand. Above all, instead of living in fear, let us use this opportunity to "Trust in the LORD with all thine heart; and lean not unto thine own understanding." (KJV) and Prov 3:55 "Casting all your care upon him; for he careth for you." (KJV) 1 Pet 5:7

The year 2000 is going to be a great year of blessing and opportunity for you.

God bless you.

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Apocalypse how? Y2K makes a mountain of the millenium molehill

By GRAEME BOND

THE technologically illiterate, many lawyers, the cynical opportunists and other Y2K advocates would have us believe that almost everywhere there is a silicon chip there is a date embedded and a millennium bug ready to strike one second after 23:59.59 on 31 December 1999.

A rational examination of the facts soon casts doubt on the more extreme stories.

An article in the business pages of The Age, ``Bug watchers to tackle laggards'' (3 March) revealed that the Commonwealth Bank had found 1500 embedded systems in its buildings that ``would have malfunctioned''.

This figure was out of 61,000 - 2.45per cent of systems. READ ON

___________________________________________

Gil Howard-Browne

(Taken from) http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/y2k/19990226.asp

Embedded chips: The hidden half of the Y2K crisis
By Laura A. Bruce

Minimal interruptions
Gartner Group estimates that 90 percent of the interruptions that result from faulty embedded chips will last more than an hour, but only 10 percent will last more than three days.

A lot of these systems weren't particularly reliable in the first place, says Gartner Group's Jim Duggan. "People are used to them failing, they turn them off and work around them. We overestimate our dependency on them and their reliability."

Duggan says the bigger problem for a lot of companies will be making sure people don't panic over Y2K.

"If 250 million people line up at ATMs, the impact is far higher than if all of one particular model of ATM don't work that Saturday," he says.

The city of Chicago has identified five critical areas

Water department -- Chicago has the two largest water treatment facilities in the country.
Aviation department -- including O'Hare, Midway and Meigs airports.
Fleets -- emergency vehicles, police fire, EMS, snow plows (they have radios and other electronic equipment.)
Facilities -- police stations, fire houses and human services such as clinics.
Buildings -- occupied by city employees

They have teams working on the problems and expect to have full reporting available by end March and will have ample time to fix the problem before the end of the year.

Survey finds many less fearful about disruptions,

The Associated Press
03/10/99 5:28 AM Eastern

ARLINGTON, Va. (AP) -- As they learn more about potential problems when 1999 becomes 2000, people are becoming less concerned about a catastrophe but more likely to take small actions to avoid problems, a poll found.

The USA Today/Gallup Poll released today found only 21 percent now expect major problems, down from 34 percent in December.

On the other hand, 54 percent now say they will avoid air travel around Jan. 1, compared with 47 percent in December, and 24 percent say they will buy a generator or wood stove, up from 17 percent in December.

What has come to be known as the "Y2K" problem stems from concern that many computers may be unable to interpret a date ending in two zeroes, perhaps "thinking" it is 1900 instead of 2000.

The latest survey found 56 percent said they have heard "a great deal" about the problem, compared to 39 percent in December.

The poll of 1,021 adults was taken march 5-7 and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

� The Associated Press, 1999

Fed president says U.S. in for "soft landing."

3-10-99

By DOUG CAMPBELL, Staff Writer

WINSTON-SALEM -- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Alfred Broaddus said Tuesday the soaring U.S. economy may soon slow, but not to the point of meltdown.

Broaddus, speaking before the Rotary Club of Winston-Salem, said he expects a "slowdown, not a recession," and that the American business climate looks poised to make a "classic soft landing."

"There is some diverse risk there but generally the economy is performing very well," Broaddus said. "One of the reasons is the steady decline in the U.S. inflation rate."

Though Broaddus is not a current voting member of the Fed committee that sets the discount rate, he sits on the committee and his opinions tend to reflect his colleagues.

Inflation, one of the buzz words in monetary policy, may not be fully removed from the economic landscape, despite decades of being kept in check, Broaddus said. He said the "risks are pretty balanced" against near-term higher inflation.

"I'm happy about our excellent inflation performance as anyone, but we need to maintain it," he said. "You can have problems down the line ... It's important that we not assume inflation will never ever be a problem any more."

Economic turmoil abroad, most recently in Brazil, is an ongoing threat to the U.S. business climate, Broaddus said.

Turning back to domestic issues, Broaddus said the Year 2000 computer problem appears well taken care of by American business. The Fed has been examining banks for their Y2K preparedness.

"We're very pleased with what we see," he said. "Our sense is we are making good progress. The banking industry generally is probably ahead of the curve

Doomsday Avoided

by Peter de Jager

"We've finally broken the back of the Y2K problem." I've been making that statement now for about 6 months. Naturally, it has generated some interest and a handful of e-mail. The comments range from polite requests for me to state, in my own words, what exactly I mean by 'broken the back of Y2K' to the outraged rants from folks intent on selling the world panic, gold coins and plots of otherwise worthless real estate. Naturally, any good news about Y2K spoils the fun and intentions of those trying to incite panic and runs on the bank.

Read the full article

Peter de Jager, is a speaker on year 2000 computing issues along with the topics of change, creativity, and management technology.

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Wednesday, June 09, 1999

Objective, quantifiable test results are turning up for Y2K tests at major financial firms, energy producers and government computer systems. The results aren’t pretty -- for doomsayers that is.

Y2K Panic Predicted to be Worse than Actual Problems

Even with a steady stream of positive news being reported from American companies and government Y2K tests, officials fear the fallout from public panic will be far worse than any actual computer problems.

“The only constant in all of this is no one really knows what is going to happen when we cross that date threshold,” Bob Cohen, an analyst with the Information Technology Association of America told Reuters recently.

The most legitimate concerns are for bugs buried in small to medium-sized companies, county or municipal governments, and countries outside the United States. On the home front -- at least as far as big business, the federal government and the main infrastructure are concerned -- things look good.

The greatest fear among Y2K experts is not computer turmoil, but a self-fulfilling prophecy scenario, where stockpiling provokes exactly the shortages people fear from Y2K glitches.

But in terms of actual computer glitches, the news so far is good.

“A rash of recent Y2K tests suggest the U.S. power, securities, telecommunications, and air transport sectors are all in pretty good shape,” Reuters recently reported.

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